A Trailblazing Journey in Solar Flare Prediction

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In the growing world of computer science, there are individuals whose relentless pursuit of knowledge and innovation inspires the entire field.

Mr Mangaliso Moses Mngomezulu, a master’s student in Computer Science who is set to make a mark at the 2023 Postgraduate Research and Innovation Symposium (PRIS), stands among these visionaries. Hosted by the College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science, the symposium is set to take place at Coastlands Hotel, Musgrave, from 2 to 3 November under the theme, Water for Sustainability into the 21^st Century.

Mngomezulu’s research focused on predicting the recurrence patterns of solar flares (radioactive energy eruptions from the sun) which possess the power to disrupt power grids, dismantle satellite communications and even pose life-threatening risks to astronauts in space; posing a risk to humanity. Solar flare prediction, thus, takes centre stage in the realm of space science, and Mngomezulu’s research aims to enhance the reliability of these predictions.

Mngomezulu is among the nine master’s students from the School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science who made submissions to present their research work at the symposium. One of the major challenges in the field of solar flare prediction is the unreliability of current models. The stochastic nature of solar flare occurrence makes predicting them an intricate puzzle. Mngomezulu’s research introduces a framework aimed at enhancing the precision of solar flare predictions for those emitting an energy flux of at least 10^-6 Watts per Square meter. At its core, this framework improves the capacity of prediction models to learn the inherent randomness of solar flare occurrences and its reliability is demonstrated through a reliability diagram.

With the advanced solar flare prediction, solar physicists can construct strong models to anticipate these events. Timely predictions enable the implementation of mitigation strategies to minimise the impact of solar flares. These measures can potentially save lives, safeguard the functionality of technology-dependent communication, and prevent financial losses.

Mngomezulu’s research aligns with the symposium’s theme as it delves into the satellite systems in space which are critical for monitoring weather patterns, such as cyclone movements and cloud formations. However, these satellites are left vulnerable to solar flares leading to ionospheric heating and geomagnetic storms. Solar flare-induced disturbances in weather forecasting can lead to uncontrolled water discharges from dams and water resource management.

Mngomezulu’s research transcends the boundaries of computer science, reaching into the core of space science, and holds the promise of a safer, strong future for our technologically interconnected world.

Words: Siphesihle Owen Shezi

Photograph and image: Supplied